Facebook Marketing Case Study: How to Predict ROI Before Spending a Dime

Can You Really Know If Facebook Ads Will Work for Your Coaching Clients?

Facebook advertising has become a go-to marketing strategy for many small business owners and coaches. But here’s the hard truth—most Facebook ad campaigns lose money. Ads aren’t cheap, and many business owners never see a positive return.

What if there was a way to predict Facebook ad profitability before spending a dime?

That’s what this guide delivers: a step-by-step walkthrough of how to calculate whether Facebook ads will work for your (or your client’s) business using real data. Think of it as your Facebook marketing crystal ball.

Why Small Business Owners Struggle With Facebook Ads

Let’s face it—marketing often becomes the biggest line item in a small business’s budget. And while Facebook is the platform of choice for many, few businesses approach it strategically.

Before running any ads, it’s essential to know:

• What your average customer is worth (lifetime value)

• How much you can afford to pay to acquire one

• If Facebook can deliver customers at that price

The Facebook Ads ROI Formula: A Real-World Example

Let’s walk through an example using a small accounting firm planning to run Facebook ads to promote a webinar for business owners.

Step 1: Know Your Numbers

The accountant charges $1,500 per year per client, keeps clients for 6 years, and earns an 88% gross profit margin.

Client Lifetime Value (LTV)
$1,500 × 6 × 0.88 = $7,920

Step 2: Set a Monthly Ad Budget

Let’s assume they spend $1,000/month on Facebook ads.

The average Facebook CPC (Cost Per Click) is $1.72.
$1,000 ÷ $1.72 = 581 clicks

Step 3: Estimate Webinar Signups

The average Facebook conversion rate is 9.21%.
581 clicks × 9.21% = 54 webinar registrations

Step 4: Estimate Attendance

Let’s be ultra-conservative and assume only 25% of registrants show up.

54 × 25% = 13 attendees

Step 5: Estimate Conversions

Let’s say the accountant has a 15% close rate (also conservative).

13 attendees × 15% = 2 new clients

Step 6: Calculate Gross and Net Profit

Each client is worth $7,920, so 2 clients = $15,840 gross profit
Subtract the $1,000 ad spend = $14,840 net profit

Return on Ad Spend (ROAS): 1,484%
Profit Margin: Excellent

What If Everything Goes Wrong?

Now let’s take a worst-case scenario to test if Facebook ads are still profitable:

• Double the ad spend: $2,000

• Double CPC: $3.44

• Cut conversion rate in half: 4.61%

• Same attendance rate: 25%

• Same close rate: 15%

Ultra-Conservative Numbers Breakdown:

• 581 clicks (same volume)

• 581 × 4.61% = 27 registrants

• 27 × 25% = 7 attendees

• 7 × 15% = 1 new client

LTV per client: $7,920
Profit: $7,920 – $2,000 = $5,920 net profit

ROI even in worst-case scenario: 296%

Final Thoughts: Should You Use Facebook Ads?

If you’re a coach helping small business clients—or a business owner yourself—don’t guess at Facebook ads. Use math to make smart marketing decisions.

Key Takeaways:

• Always calculate client lifetime value before spending on ads

• Use Facebook’s known metrics (CPC, conversion rates, etc.) to reverse-engineer ROI

• Even ultra-conservative numbers can produce profitable outcomes

• Still, don’t make Facebook ads your first strategy—start with higher-ROI tactics like:

  • Joint ventures

  • Upsell and cross-sell campaigns

  • Drip email follow-ups

When you’re ready for Facebook, use the formula above as your profitability prediction system.